UFC 266 betting predictions UFC 266 free bets @Pipbets

UFC 266 BETTING PREDICTIONS free

There’s 2 main fights in this event. We will ignore the Womens event today, as Shevchenko is odds on 1/11 favoruite and we feel there is no value backing on or against her, as she seems unstoppable.

Our attentions draw to two fights in particular; Lawler Vs Diaz and …

Volkanovski Vs Ortega betting predicitions

145lbs – featherwight

Despite being 2 inches shorter than Ortega, Alex Volkanovski will enjoy a 2 inch reach advantage.

Both of these guys only have one loss on their record each, although Alex Volkanovski’s loss a a while back, and when he fought at a higher weight class.

Brian Ortega’s loss was no shame either, having only lost to class act Max Holloway, when challenging for the world title.

Ortega is classed as a “switch stance” fighter – meaning that he can lead from orthodox and southpaw. Having said that, Ortega spends around 70% of his time in the southpaw stance, when he is boxing.

Volkanovski is more a pressure fighter, which could cause problems for Brian here. The overwhelming volume and pace of attacks Alex creates is a problem for anyone in the featherweight division. Other victims such as: Jose Aldo, Chad Mendes and Darren Elkins can also attest to this, having all lost to Alex too.

 

Alex had a bit more luck against previous world champion, Max Holloway, having won on both their meets.

Alex first won the world title from Max in December 2019; His fight after that was a world title defence against Max Holloway again, where he won a points decision for the second time. So you could argue, regarding the form statistics, that Alex has a clear edge here.

Although we know that betting is not such a linear process and different fighters’ styles create different outcomes, regardless of the formbook.

Why we think Alex’s pressure will make the difference

In previous fights, Brian Ortega has let his opponents have their way too much. For example, in his bout with Clay Guida in June 2019, he allowed Clay to continue pushing the pace. The same thing happened against Renato Moicano in 2017. However, this was a few years back, and there has been a twist to the tale since.

Reasons why Brian Ortega may have changed.

After Brian lost to Max Holloway in December 2018, he disappeared for two whole years. He did not return until October 2020 and came back with a bang!

Brian seemed to come back a new fighter with a solid game plan that worked. He managed to keep the “Korean Zombie”, Chang Sung Jung off of him with kicks to the lead leg, and used a very disciplined approach. He wasn’t allowing the Zombie to dictate the pace, as he had done so in his previous fights. Maybe he has changed? Maybe he could have even improved further since beating the Zombie 11 month ago in Abu Dhabi?

If Brian can replicate what he did with the Korean Zombie and slow the fight down, keep Alex back with his jab, not allow Alex to dictate the pace and pressure him, then Brian could have a fair shout in this match, especially if he has improved further since the last Zombie fight.

Brian’s best chance of winning

 

If he can stop Alex controlling the pace, slow things down and then start to form his own attack, he could set up some submission attempts. Brian is clearly a better ground fighter than Alex, Brian spends a lot of time with Rener Gracie, which is evident when he manages to get into submission positions.

 

Brian’s nickname is “T City”, the T stands for triangle. Triangle is a form of choke, performed with the legs by the way.

 

We think if Brian gets to the grappling stage, this would be his best choice of winning. Brian has proved he has great neck attacks, especially with the Guillotine, and can use these very well within scrambles. * Scrambles are where the fight becomes a bit of  a frenzy and technique usually goes out of the window!

Our UFC 266 betting prediction UK

Volkanovski will not want to chance getting into grappling exchanges with Ortega. Volkanovski has enjoyed putting pressure on fighters before, with the intent of taking them down, and then performing ground and pound, usually just to dominate. However, Alex might feel this approach may not be worth risking against Brian?

Alex may simply choose to try keep Brian at distance with his 2 inch reach advantage and just choose to dominate o the feet and win on points, by keeping distance and having a higher amount of output with strikes. Which so far, he has proved he can do.

Alex will also feel confident, when relating to the formbook. We’re not totally convinced that Brian has changed his fight style, as feel just by judging that conclusion based on one fight, the Zombie fight would be foolish.

This will probably be a close fight. However, we feel that even if Brian has changed his fighting approach permanently it may still not even be enough for to beat Alex.

Therefore, we’re shouting that Alex is the best bet here, although he is odds-on, we feel these odds are more realistic  and he is more likely to win.

 

DIAZ Vs LAWLER UFC 266

Diaz Vs Lawler gets my attention the most of this entire event

For any hardcore long-term UFC fight fans out there, this will more than likely be their main excitement form this event, despite there being 2 title fights on

Nick and Robbie both met 17 long years ago, way back in 2004. Nick was 20 years old, while Robbie was a 23-year-old savage, on a massive winning streak and known for being very aggressive. Many thought Nicks Jiu jitsu style would not be able to handle the onslaught of Robbie’s firepower.

However, Nick had other ideas. One and a half minutes into round 2, Diaz managed to connect with a short counter-right and dropped Lawler, the referee rightfully stopped the fight.

 

Trading opportunities

Look at the odds … there is barely anything in it. However, I do suspect a good opportunity for scalping on Betfair. Scalping is a method of trading where you take short, regular trades and sell quickly, repetitively. I feel scalping would be most effective as I feel this market will be up and down.

Learn more about scalping here

Why I feel the market up and down?

At the time of writing this, Robbie Lawler was slight favourite of around 1.88 on Betfair. However, due to Nicks cult following from a mass of different backgrounds – I feel there could be a “weight of money” effect on the odds. Well, at least enough to satisfy scalping.

Don’t shoot the messenger!

I’m not a financial advisor, so please do not go hard on my say so. This event will surely be exciting.

Who will win?

It was very hard for me to reach a conclusion to this, but I’m going for ….

 

Robbie Lawler

Although Nick has not fought in a very long time, he is likely to be very fit for sure. His younger brother Nate, and himself, both do regular Triathlons, are coaches and lifelong martial artists to the core. They are also both well-known cannabis users, although that does not seem to have affected their output at all.

Nick has a handy 2-inch height and reach advantage, which will of course help Nicks cause, just like it did in their first fight! Maybe Nick will be giving plenty of “Stockton slaps” on Saturday night. It will be exciting watching Nick try walk Robbie down again, will he dare?

Robbie has lost his last four fights; however, he fought the best in the division not too long ago and won half of those fights! Although USADA were not checking everyone for steroids so vigorously back then I still feel this won’t make a difference if Robbie was using before and is not now.

 

I believe Nick has the wider skill set but feel I would rather chance Robbie as he has proved himself more recently, although I’m more than aware, anything can happen in this fight … just as the odds suggest!

One thing for sure this will be a cracking fight!

Regarding the two main fights …

 

I feel “shortie” Alexander Volkanovski will be too much for Ortega. I enjoyed watching these two in the recent “Ultimate fighter series”. A series I recommend to people who don’t even like UFC.

In the women’s event, it’s hard to see past Shevchenko, she just seems to be unbeatable right now. Lauren Murphy [another previously TUF star] will need some luck to beat the 1/11 odds-on Shevchenko.

 

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