MINIMUM BET GUARANTEE
Minimum bet guarantee is a straight-forward offer that is primarily used for Arbing
Minimum Bet Guarantee is an offer most people use on their gubbed accounts. However, this offer can be used for both gubbed and ungubbed accounts. The nature of this bet is Arbing – and therefore, this is the reason most people try use this on their gubbed accounts.
Although the bookies are offering this offer – there is still fear of harming your account from repeatedly taking value/Arb prices.
Gubbed accounts usually come in different levels of being gubbed – except with companies like bet365!
There are several companies, listed below, who offer this offer.
Below is an image, courtesy of BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK
By now we all know what an arb is, right?
Min Bet Guarantee is not Rocket Science, it is very similar to Betfair Trading, in a way …
We’re either Arbers – or Matched Bettors that are used to laying bets on markets.v
An example of an arb could be 4.0 / 3.8.
By becoming a Profit Accumulator member, you will benefit from 0% commission. This 0% commission will enable you to lay Arbs at a very ‘tight’ margin.
Using the free Matched Betting calculator on my website:
Laying £100 a 4.0 / 3.8 on MATCHBOOK, using 2% exchange would only produce +£14.29 profit Vs a +£20 profit on 0% commission. This is based on an “underlaying” method.
This image below displays the profit made when underlaying, this time using a 0% exchange, thanks to the Profit Accumulator offer.
Underlay and overlay methods are mentioned towards the end of this page.
Another reason is – we can go even ‘tighter’ to say 3.9! If necessary, but please read the potential dangers advised further down this page.
A brief overview of the dangers
This looks very appealing? … Right
However, it is not all ‘plain sailing’ …
Of course, if Bookies gave this offer – without any restrictions, they would go bust in no time!
Hence why there are time restrictions to these bets – and it is these time restrictions that cause the most difficulty, which I will explain further down this page.
A lot of you already know I was a full time Arber for six years.
During that time, I got to learn exactly when the best times were for finding Arbs!
I’m not going to tell you the best times right here – but I can tell you the WORST times and they are 10:00 onwards!
Which doesn’t help, as most of these guarantees are for 10 – 11am onwards!
Reason for this?
Markets level-out around 09:30am.
Although only semi-relevant now, for several reasons; Traditionally, years ago, all Bookies used to price-up their races at 09:00.
The pricing-up would be given by the biggest bookies first [with the best & boldest traders], the other Bookies would then follow suit.
They did this because they feared ‘making a mistake’. Mis-pricing causes Bookmakers to lose money.
Although Bookmakers are the biggest Arbers in the world – one thing they despise the most is having a taste of their own medicine!
Consequently, a pattern developed in the markets – which existed 15 years ago, 10 years ago and still exists today!
Fact is: Betfair market behaviours and patterns dictate Bookmaker markets. This wasn’t so apparent 19 years ago – but developed gradually over time. Partly because Betfair liquidity/efficiency a lot larger & also maybe due to the internet being 100 x bigger than it was 19 years ago.
Bookmakers’ algorithms are all linked to Betfair in some shape or form.
To cut a long story short – Horse markets are dead come 10:00, they rarely move between 10:00 and pre race – pre race meaning 20-30 minutes before the off time.
So, we’ve established one thing =
You will rarely find juicy Arbs at 10:00am onwards with the Bookies that offer Min Bet Guarantee
So that leaves us with pre-Race – which draws-in two dilemmas, one of which is dangerous.
The closer a race gets to the ‘Off time’, the faster the markets move.
IE: The faster they – Go up in price and down in price.
In the final minute before the race is the busiest time within the market– if you watch these markets you will notice the liquidity rising rapidly, compared to earlier.
Because these markets are moving very quickly – the dangers grow higher. It is not uncommon for exchange prices to drift rapidly, as in the example below.
I see on Exchange a horse is 5.0 with William Hill, yet 4.8 on exchange; so I back this horse.
Within the split-seconds of backing on exchange – and laying on exchange … this horse has jumped from 4.8 to 5.2 on exchange
What do you do?
The most common reaction to this would be to ‘wait’ – and hope that it contracts-in to 4.8, or at least 5.0 – so we can then lay our horse at our back price, without losing anything!
What sometimes happens …
What if this horse continued to drift .. to 5.4, then 5.5, 5.6, 5.7 … do you quickly lay the horse – for a loss?
Now, I’m not going to tell you exactly what to do in this situation.
The wisest thing to have done was lay at 5.2. But this would depend on how close to /2off time” this had happened.
If it was 5 minutes before the off, there is still time for the horse to shorten, but also could drift further!
It is already apparent that this is now veering-into the realms of Betfair Trading and knowing about handling risk
Of course, these are the negatives.
There are just as many positives.
However, I felt it necessary to stress this first, because you are likely to experience this scenario if you do this offer enough times!
What does not help with this kind of stress – is that it is so close to “off time” and therefore requires decisions.
Dealing with quick decisions
A seasoned Matched bettor or Arber will have some default “go to plans” when this happens; they would have likely experienced this problem many times and have their own contingency plans they prefer.
*Either choice is usually a negative outcome, so there’s no real ABC answer.
However, if you’re a Newbie with a £350 stake on an Arb that has drifted … then you are likely to make some rash decisions.
My advice would be to practise on a few markets with small stakes first, just to experience this.
Either that – or learn the ‘hard way’! Which is what we don’t want, do we?
Min Bet Guarantee will be featured, in detail, on my MEMBERS CLUB in later months.
Underlay Vs Overlay
In my six years of full time Arbing, I learnt to prefer the underlay method; this produces profits on less occasions, but when you do profit, you profit more.
This theory is quite subjective; sadly, I have no data to ‘back-up’ this theory with statistics, but I am confident – when it comes to Arbs – that underlaying is
more profitable, long-term.
It is also easier to work out!
Bookies offering this
Please double-check these offers, as they are likely to change at some stage.
Class 1 & Class 2 races refer to the grades within horse racing. Class 1 being the cream!
These grades are specified on each race title. They usually only occur on weekends and festival days, IE: Cheltenham, Royal Ascot, et Al.
This offer used to be restricted to Class 1 & Class 2 races, but was changed in December 2018 to ALL races. Bet £500, Applies after 10:00 am.
Please check the validity of these.
I have seen several guys had their accounts closed for Arbing, although this is a minority, please be mindful. I am referring to the below Betfair SportsBook terms and conditions excerpt:
“Examples of betting behaviour which indicates that a customer may be arbing includes (i) customers consistently or systematically placing qualifying bets when the price is greater than the corresponding back price on the same selection on the Betfair Exchange at the point of bet placement.”
This applies to only Class 1 & 2 races, again after 10:00am.
The difference with this offer is you are able to win a maximum of £500. Applies to win bets only.
If backing at odds 3.0 = £250 would be the maximum to stake. If backing at odds 11.0, then £50 would be the maximum.
Again, check still valid.
Applies to all bets placed after “final declarations” are made declaring the final field runners.
Win a minimum of £500, see terms above.
Restricted to 11:00am onwards. If you have had your BetVictor account closed or Gubbed in the past, you can contact BetVictor and ask them to reopen it for this purpose.
However, there have been reports that BetVictor have done this, only to gubb the individual days later!
OFFERS IN SHORE ONLY
Win a minimum of £5,000 on all ITV Races
£500 min win on any other UK/Irish races
Win a minimum of £5,000 on all ITV Races
If you’re new or not used to this – then please take a day and lay a few bets to test the volatility of markets just before the off time!