Find Value Early – ANTE POST strategies

 

Looking for Value … Arbing Ante post

 

This article is not just based on Arbing or Ante post.

Three main rules in Matched Betting – Arbing – trading

  • Be first
  • Be in it to win it
  • Rinse and repeat

 

The video below explains all.

The main focus on this article is about “being first” and “being in it to win it”, as Del Boy would say to Rodney!

Matched betting and Arbing, in essence, is nothing more than a numbers game; when playing ‘Advantage Play’ we are simply running through a process that returns profits. Meaning, the more we include, the more chance we have of profiting.

How to “be first”

Early bird catches the worm …

  • Study markets, in advance.
  • Look for patterns.
  • Look for liquidity building up on the lay side.
  • The markets rarely lie.
  • The patterns usually tell the story.
  • The earlier you can spot these signals, of arbs wanted, the more chance you can take advantage of them.
  • Ante Post markets can be good indicators of this.

Best time to look?

In the video, I explain about the horse called “Winx”.

How it was odds of 2.5 on Betfair, in the Ante Post market, with over £1000 wanted for it at that price.

I see online that WH were offering odds 5.0, so I quickly went out and placed £180 in three different WH betting shops. I remember the day vividly, as I had a bad cold and it was snowing.

For those that are not familiar with betting shops; £200 seems to be the “max bet” when asking for a price.

This is of course pending whether it is an arb, a value price and also the time.

It is a totally different situation, however, if you walked in a betting shop at 11am and asked to have £400 on a horse that was NOT a value price; this would be easy!

As well as asking to have £1000 on Manchester United to win on Saturday, this would be easy too.

There is a full article on SHARBING HERE within my website.

If the time is before 09:30 and it is a value price, you will usually be restricted. Ladbrokes verify their bets electronically by Traders.

Hence why I “sheepishly” handed-over my £180 on WINX, asking for a price. I then drove to the next WH shop a mile away and did the same, followed by another WH shop 3 miles away and did the same again.

On return, I laid all of my stake, plus more, creating a “green”. I did not overlay fully as I thought the horse would run and I also thought it would shorten more.

I do believe, if it had of run, it would have been priced “odds-on”, meaning under 2.0 odds.

The outcome

The horse got declared a non runner 3 weeks later. I lost my Ante post bet in William Hill shops, but won on Betfair and also won more than I placed, so was happy.

I would have been much happier nowadays, as Betfair have made commissions 2% widely available check HERE FOR DETAILS

Advantage Play

There are many occasions where you can find similar scenarios to the one above. Ideally, you want to find them where the date [between placing the bet and the race] is not too long.

Why?

So that your exchange funds are not tied-up too long.

Sometimes, I do not lay immediately and I wait.

However, this is a gamble in itself … and I would only recommend doing this if you are experienced and feel comfortable with these markets and advantage play using that style/method.

If you are not experienced, then just practise with smaller stakes and gain confidence that way.

I only gained confidence and skill because I genuinely love Horse racing and watching the markets develop, kind of like a market “Geek”!

Practise and repetition will give you confidence.

I would dissuade anyone from trying to go “all in” from a profit perspective and expect to use this as an on-going profit tool without first learning yourself.

All you have to do is study the markets, like I did in the video! It is pretty simple stuff.

Patterns

Once you have mastered this, it will help with your Trading and Arbing skills in general.

You will definitely find Arbs by doing this, despite me only finding two skinny arbs in this VIDEO, if you look 3-4 weeks prior to when the races are run, this will help you find more.

However, if you REALLY do want to be that early bird that gets the juicy prices, then start studying earlier … and BE FIRST!

Three main rules in Matched Betting – Arbing – trading

  • Be first
  • Be in it to win it
  • Rinse and repeat

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